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Allnex Belgium

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Chemicals
Location
Dendermonde, Belgium
Plant size
Mid-sized
Heat below 200 °C
5,127–28,651 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
140 °C
Est. COP
2.00
ETS emissions 2025
12,182 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
312
Savings basis
midpoint 16,900 MWh/yr
Price gap now3.64
EU investment threshold
3.64 > 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Not yet: savings too thin to finance the equipment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 2.22 (COP 2.0 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Doesn't pay off (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
2.8 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
−€527,130
Baseline −€527,130
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 44 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ locked
2.8 kt/yr
Ratio 3.64 is above the EU investment threshold of 2.0. Pick a stronger scenario or move the price levers to unlock it.
Gas boiler emissions3.8 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−1.0 kt/yr
Net avoided2.8 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract41.7 kt
Grid carbon intensity120 g/kWh

Default 120 g/kWh is the BE grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

Belgium · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
3.64
+1.64 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 3.13–3.87
Large plants
3.42
+1.42 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 3.14–3.46
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • No national policy items mapped for Belgium yet. Scenarios apply a generic 5 / 10 / 15% ratio reduction.
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle