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INTERNATIONAL PAPER MADRID MILL S.L.U

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Paper
Location
Fuenlabrada, Spain
Plant size
Large
Heat below 200 °C
243,412–544,098 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
110 °C
Est. COP
2.50
ETS emissions 2025
144,587 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
707
Savings basis
midpoint 393,800 MWh/yr
Price gap now2.22
EU investment threshold
2.22 > 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Not yet: savings too thin to finance the equipment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 2.78 (COP 2.5 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Doesn't pay off (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
67.9 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
€4,305,197
Baseline €4,305,197
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 49 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ locked
67.9 kt/yr
Ratio 2.22 is above the EU investment threshold of 2.0. Pick a stronger scenario or move the price levers to unlock it.
Gas boiler emissions88.4 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−20.5 kt/yr
Net avoided67.9 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract1.02 Mt
Grid carbon intensity130 g/kWh

Default 130 g/kWh is the ES grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

Spain · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
2.39
+0.39 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 2.34–2.61
Large plants
2.22
+0.22 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 2.22–2.76
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • adoptedNetwork · 2026-0.08 ratio
    Electro-intensive network toll discount
    −8% on network charges for industrial consumers
    “Se establece una reducción de los peajes de acceso para consumidores electrointensivos…”
    BOE – Real Decreto
  • scheduledTaxes · 2027-0.10 ratio
    Electricity tax (IEE) reduction for heat electrification
    IEE cut from 5.11% to 0.5% for qualifying heat pumps
    “La aplicación del tipo reducido se extenderá a instalaciones de bomba de calor industrial a partir de 2027.”
    CNMC circular 2026
  • proposedGas taxes · 2028-0.12 ratio
    Gas carbon component (ETS2 pass-through)
    Raises gas price ~6 €/MWh
    “Se valorará la internalización progresiva del coste del carbono en los combustibles fósiles…”
    PNIEC 2023–2030
  • Target, no measure— · 2030
    Industrial heat electrification target
    Target only, no measure attached
    “Objetivo de electrificación del calor industrial de baja temperatura del 25 %.”
    PNIEC 2023–2030
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle