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← Finland

KAUKAAN TEHTAAT

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Paper
Location
Lappeenranta, Finland
Plant size
Large
Heat below 200 °C
137,345–307,007 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
110 °C
Est. COP
2.50
ETS emissions 2025
81,583 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
402
Savings basis
midpoint 222,200 MWh/yr
Price gap now0.95
EU investment threshold
0.95 ≤ 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Yes: savings are big enough to repay the investment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 2.78 (COP 2.5 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Pays off today (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
44.5 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
€15,433,024
Baseline €15,433,024
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 95 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ unlocked
44.5 kt/yr
The business case pays off at these prices, so these savings are realistic.
Gas boiler emissions49.9 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−5.3 kt/yr
Net avoided44.5 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract667.9 kt
Grid carbon intensity60 g/kWh

Default 60 g/kWh is the FI grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

Finland · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
0.90
1.10 below 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 0.71–0.95
Large plants
0.95
1.05 below 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 0.65–0.95
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • No national policy items mapped for Finland yet. Scenarios apply a generic 5 / 10 / 15% ratio reduction.
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle