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PAPETERIES ET CARTONNERIES LACAUX FRÈRES

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Paper
Location
Bosmie l aiguille, France
Plant size
Mid-sized
Heat below 200 °C
18,906–42,260 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
110 °C
Est. COP
2.50
ETS emissions 2025
11,230 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
335
Savings basis
midpoint 30,600 MWh/yr
Price gap now2.04
EU investment threshold
2.04 > 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Not yet: savings too thin to finance the equipment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 2.78 (COP 2.5 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Doesn't pay off (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
6.4 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
€550,854
Baseline €550,854
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 61 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ locked
6.4 kt/yr
Ratio 2.04 is above the EU investment threshold of 2.0. Pick a stronger scenario or move the price levers to unlock it.
Gas boiler emissions6.9 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−490 t/yr
Net avoided6.4 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract95.7 kt
Grid carbon intensity40 g/kWh

Default 40 g/kWh is the FR grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

France · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
2.04
+0.04 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 1.86–2.61
Large plants
2.08
+0.08 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 1.90–2.64
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • No national policy items mapped for France yet. Scenarios apply a generic 5 / 10 / 15% ratio reduction.
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle