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Toscopaper S.p.A.

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Paper
Location
Lucca, Italy
Plant size
Large
Heat below 200 °C
32,121–71,800 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
110 °C
Est. COP
2.50
ETS emissions 2025
19,080 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
382
Savings basis
midpoint 52,000 MWh/yr
Price gap now3.45
EU investment threshold
3.45 > 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Not yet: savings too thin to finance the equipment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 2.78 (COP 2.5 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Doesn't pay off (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
6.3 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
−€824,951
Baseline −€824,951
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 59 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ locked
6.3 kt/yr
Ratio 3.45 is above the EU investment threshold of 2.0. Pick a stronger scenario or move the price levers to unlock it.
Gas boiler emissions11.7 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−5.4 kt/yr
Net avoided6.3 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract93.9 kt
Grid carbon intensity260 g/kWh

Default 260 g/kWh is the IT grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

Italy · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
3.39
+1.39 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 3.20–3.80
Large plants
3.45
+1.45 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 3.04–3.63
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • No national policy items mapped for Italy yet. Scenarios apply a generic 5 / 10 / 15% ratio reduction.
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle