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← Netherlands

Sappi Maastricht BV

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Paper
Location
Maastricht, Netherlands
Plant size
Large
Heat below 200 °C
224,519–501,865 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
110 °C
Est. COP
2.50
ETS emissions 2025
133,364 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
91
Savings basis
midpoint 363,200 MWh/yr
Price gap now2.09
EU investment threshold
2.09 > 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Not yet: savings too thin to finance the equipment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 2.78 (COP 2.5 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Doesn't pay off (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
42.3 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
€8,393,310
Baseline €8,393,310
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 84 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ locked
42.3 kt/yr
Ratio 2.09 is above the EU investment threshold of 2.0. Pick a stronger scenario or move the price levers to unlock it.
Gas boiler emissions81.5 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−39.2 kt/yr
Net avoided42.3 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract634.1 kt
Grid carbon intensity270 g/kWh

Default 270 g/kWh is the NL grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

Netherlands · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
2.17
+0.17 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 2.17–3.58
Large plants
2.09
+0.09 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 2.08–2.85
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • adoptedTaxes · 2026-0.09 ratio
    Energy tax rebalancing (gas up, electricity down)
    Shifts ~1.2 ct/kWh from electricity to gas in band 2
    “De tarieven in de energiebelasting worden verschoven van elektriciteit naar aardgas…”
    Belastingplan 2026
  • scheduledLevies · 2027-0.12 ratio
    ODE / SDE++ surcharge restructuring
    Lower levy on large electricity consumers
    “Het besluit treedt in werking per 1 januari 2027.”
    ACM tariff decision
  • proposedNetwork · 2028-0.12 ratio
    Time-of-use network tariffs for flexible load
    Up to −15% network cost with flexible operation
    “Voorgesteld wordt een tijdsafhankelijk transporttarief voor grootverbruikers…”
    Netbeheer Nederland consultation
  • Target, no measureGas · 2030
    Industrial CO₂ levy trajectory
    Target, rate path under review
    “De CO₂-heffing industrie wordt herzien in het licht van de klimaatdoelen.”
    NECP update 2024
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle