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Sidul Açúcares, Unipessoal Lda.

Estimated from 2025 ETS emissions and sector assumptions, not a site assessment

Plant profile

Sector
Food
Location
Santa iria de azóia, Portugal
Plant size
Large
Heat below 200 °C
59,421–119,542 MWh/yr
Process temp (assumed)
90 °C
Est. COP
3.50
ETS emissions 2025
28,237 tCO₂
ETS installation ID
59
Savings basis
midpoint 89,500 MWh/yr
Price gap now2.02
EU investment threshold
2.02 > 2.00
Is it financeable? (European Commission)
Not yet: savings too thin to finance the equipment.
For reference, this plant's running-cost parity is 3.89 (COP 3.5 ÷ boiler efficiency 0.9) — below it the heat pump is cheaper to run than gas. Statuses use the EU threshold of 2.0.
Map status: Doesn't pay off (EU threshold 2.0)

Price-shock stress test

Annual savings vs gas boiler · current policy

Electricity price0%
Gas price0%
17.3 ktCO₂/yr avoided
Annual savings
€2,437,298
Baseline €2,437,298
Savings = heat × gas ÷ 0.9 − heat ÷ COP × electricity. Gas 51 €/MWh, electricity = gas × ratio.

CO₂ impact

Net avoided emissions vs the gas boiler · reacts to scenario, price levers and grid carbon

CO₂ locked
17.3 kt/yr
Ratio 2.02 is above the EU investment threshold of 2.0. Pick a stronger scenario or move the price levers to unlock it.
Gas boiler emissions20.1 kt/yr
Heat pump electricity emissions−2.8 kt/yr
Net avoided17.3 kt/yr
Over 15-year contract259.1 kt
Grid carbon intensity110 g/kWh

Default 110 g/kWh is the PT grid average (EEA, greenhouse gas emission intensity of electricity generation (2023)). Gas: 0.20196 t/MWh (IPCC 2006), boiler efficiency 90%.

Projected ratio · 15-year contract

Green line: EU investment threshold 2.0 · active scenario highlighted (1/4)

Spark-gap monitor

Portugal · today's electricity-to-gas ratio, Eurostat-based

Mid-sized plants
2.22
+0.22 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 1.84–2.53
Large plants
2.02
+0.02 gap to 2
Range, last 6 semesters (Eurostat): 1.94–2.60
What makes up the electricity price (mid-sized)
Volatility, last 6 semesters — same ratio, different risk

Policy forward curve

AI-extracted from national plans, laws and regulator decisions · illustrative policy items

  • No national policy items mapped for Portugal yet. Scenarios apply a generic 5 / 10 / 15% ratio reduction.
Projected ratio by scenario (mid-sized) — same levels as the map toggle